Zeke Hausfather

I've updated the Climate Dashboard to use the new 11-model ENSO multi-model mean to help predict 2026 temperatures.

It caused the 2026 estimate to jump from 1.45C to 1.51C, reflecting the much higher likelihood of a strong El Nino developing: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global

El Niño is coming, and it is shaping up to be a big one.

Over at The Climate Brink I've put together a compilation of the latest forecasts by different modeling groups. They suggest that we might see an event comparable in strength to what we saw in 2016: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-el-nino-cometh

We just launched Frontier’s 2026 Innovation program! We will provide R&D grants and pre-purchases to address critical field research gaps and get emerging technologies out of the lab and into the field: https://frontierclimate.com/apply/innovation

We are specifically looking for:

US solar installation: Down 14% between 2024 and 2025.
Chinese solar installation: Up 14% between 2024 and 2025.

Last year China installed more than 7 times more solar capacity than the US. So much for energy dominance...

There has been a lot of recent interest by companies in mitigating short-lived climate "super-pollutants" like methane and refrigerants. This can have a strong short-term climate impact, but to credibly counterbalance CO2 emissions requires combining them with durable carbon removal.

I have no idea of AI will ever become conscious, and I'm not sure that is a question that can be answered.

But I'm increasingly convinced that any sufficiently advanced AI will be indistinguishable from consciousness.

The El Nino cometh.

This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp.

One of my predictions during our Climate Brink end of year wrap-up was that 2026 might be the first year where global clean energy investment exceeds global military spending.

Unfortunately with recent wars we will likely have to wait a few more years for it to occur: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/when-will-clean-energy-spending-exceed

We see clear fingerprints of greenhouse gas-driven climate change: the upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere, surface, and oceans are warming.

If it were external factors like to sun driving warming we'd see the whole atmosphere warm.

With cold outbreaks sweeping parts of the US, some have argued that climate change is to blame. But the proposed mechanism remains quite controversial in the scientific community, and the number of extreme cold events have been decreasing almost everywhere: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/fact-check-climate-change-is-not

It was a real pleasure chatting with Bryony Worthington on the Cleaning Up Podcast. Check our our wide ranging discussion of warming acceleration, clouds and aerosols, future emissions scenarios, geoengineering, and carbon removal here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzySrSD8vz8